Pennsylvania Observer

A blog for progressive people in Pennsylvania. Greens, Democrats and others who want to comment on current news items in the Keystone State.

Thursday, March 03, 2005


Polls. A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed Bob Casey with a decent lead over Rick Santorum in next year's U.S. Senate race. The poll showed Casey would win 46-41 with 12% undecided. This poll has led much of PA's corporate media to join the Democratic Leadership Council in anointing Casey as the clear choice for the Dems. But the Quinnipiac poll showed that Casey wasn't the only viable Democrat. Barbara Hafer's numbers put her well within striking distance of Santorum, trailing only by a 47-39 percent margin. The same poll showed former Congressperson Joe Hoeffel getting crushed 50-34, while State Rep. and PA Democratic Party Chair loses 51-30.
Hafer's own internal poll shows her in a dead heat. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (FMM&A) leaked the Hafer poll to the media last week. This poll (see chart) showed Hafer and Santorum tied at 44% each. Even better for Hafer, when positive statements were read about both candidates, Hafer leapt to a 52-41% lead.
The same poll showed that most Pennsylvanians remain pro-choice, choosing a candidate who “supports a woman’s right to choose whether or not to have an abortion” over a candidate who “opposes abortion and led the fight to ban partial birth abortions” by a 51-37% margin.
In another Quinnipiac poll, Governor Ed Rendell appears to be in for a cakewalk against any of the three Republicans looking to take him on. Rendell leads State Sen. Jeff Piccola 52 - 28 percent; former Lt. Gov. William Scranton III 50 - 35 percent; and celebrity gubernatorial candidate of the year and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann by a 50 - 34 percent margin.In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Scranton will win handily, if Scranton’s internal poll is to be believed. In another leaked memo, Neil Newhouse, of Public Opinion Strategies, informed Scranton that he would annihilate Piccola 48-12 in a two-way race. If Swann makes it a three-way, Scranton still wins handily with 38% to Swann’s 17% and Piccola’s 10%.


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